In this Metacast episode, Aaron Bush and Thomas Baker, join your host Maria Gillies to discuss Naavik Pro’s recent deconstruction of Garena Free Fire, and how the game found success in a crowded battle royale market. The team also discusses the recent dip in mobile game earnings duiring Q1 2022 and the announcement of Bloodborne Kart, a fan mod-project centered from Bloodborne PSX creator Lilith Walther.
PocketGamer’s 2022 Mobile Games Awards
Congratulations to the winning games:
- People’s Choice: Cookie Run: Kingdom by Dev Sisters
- Game of the Year and Best Developers’ Award: Beatstar by Space Ape
Free Fire Deconstruction
Reference: Naavik’s Garena Free Fire deconstruction
- Part of Naavik’s recent expansion of 2nd vertical in F2P Mobile, in addition to Blockchain Games
- Next deconstruction is of Cookie Run: Kingdom
- More value for the same subscription cost of Naavik Pro
Gameplay Overview
- Battle Royale genre: as popularized by PUBG
- Succeeded on lower-end Android market in key regions of Southeast Asia, Latin America, India, and North America
- 1B downloads worldwide, especially dominant in emerging economies
- Was an under-served niche when FF launched in 2017
- Critical success features
- Lower player count: 50 instead of 100 → smaller map required, less RAM, more compatible with mobile format
- Plentiful loot, mobile-friendly gun play
- Players are generally evenly matched → not as dexterity/skill-based
- Distilled Fortnite-like building capabilities with Gloo walls to lower barrier to entry
- Performance was phenomenal in 2018 - 2021
- But momentum is recently slowing, likely part of post-COVID tail winds
- Recently launched FF Max → higher-end version
Garena Overview
- Started as a game publisher, then rebranded to Sea Limited
- Built on key early platform partnership with Tencent
- FF is first and only major step to self-published games
- Re-investing profits into e-commerce (via Shopee) and financial services (via SeaMoney)
- Interesting model: Leverage cashflow and distribution networks to build larger ecosystems in digital services → but quite rare
Unconventional monetization mechanics
- Players pay for power, not just cosmetics
- Positioned in the ‘Goldilocks’ zone → significant enough but not overly unfair
- Randomized elements dilute the purchased power
- Cosmetics and power elements are temporary
- Success may not translate with typical Tier 1 audiences
- That said, FF is also taking off on Android in US
- Accounting for significant revenue despite having a low percentage of downloads
- Important to manage US market well, especially with recent ban in India
Suggestions for next steps for FF
- Consider slowing down content treadmill and refocusing on technical performance
- Could expand cross-platform, building on acquisition of Phoenix Labs, builder of Dauntless (cross-platform F2P game)
- Spin out trans-media, like Riot did with League of Legends
- Expand User-Generated Content to differentiate further as a mobile-based battle royale, building on Craftland feature
Mobile Game Earnings - Q1 22
Reference: Sensor Tower reported that mobile game earnings were down 7% in Q1 2022
Broader context
- Q1 2021 saw a 25% increase in mobile game sales: Boosted by COVID lock-downs, prior to IDFA deprecation
- More of a natural reset, likely cyclical phenomenon
Other observations
- Larger decline in Google Play store versus Apple App store.
- Possibly because Android owners are likely lower-income, with greater representation in blue collar roles affected by COVID-19
- Consistent top grossing games: Honor of Kings, PUBG Mobile, Genshin Impact
- Tailwinds from large and well-established Chinese gaming market
Bloodborne Kart
Reference: Fan project building on Bloodborne
- Creator had previously launched a well-received PSX demake
- Interesting game options e.g. increase loading times, lower frame rates to emulate PS 1 experience
Positive reactions from this genre/IP-bending project
- e.g. of when Syndicate was rebooted as an FPS
- Allows players to access the game on PC
- Kudos to developer From Software for supporting fan access
- Passion-driven, high-quality fan project → Part of broader phenomenon of bringing modding activity to a higher level
- Reference: Interview with Scott Reismanis of mod.io
- Opportunity for studios to enable fan-based mods to be integration with the original game, versus indie developers building standalone offshoots