Infinity Nikki is a new cozy open-world, dress-up gacha game developed by Chinese developer Papergames and released through its publishing label, Infold. The game launched with over 30M pre-registrations across mobile, PC, and PS5, and marks Papergames’ first major global push.

What is Infiniyy Nikki — *Source: Naavik*

Released on December 5th, Infinity Nikki is an ambitious cross-platform title that took a team of over a thousand developers just under five years to make, paralleling the high production values of games like HoYoverse’s Genshin Impact. This is yet another big step for Chinese developers looking out to the global market for growth, which we have covered previously here.

In this digest, let’s take a closer look at Papergames, its profitable Nikki IP, and how the company is expanding beyond its mostly female demographic with its next games.

Dress for Success

Nikki and her talking cat, Momo, debuted on mobile in 2012’s Nikki UP2U, a game in which players dress Nikki for different story events. The player is evaluated for matching their style with the occasion, earning gold to buy more dresses. The sequel Nikki UP2U2 sticks closely to this formula and adds even more content. Both games likely grossed less than $1M each over their lifetime, but were critical to setting the revenue foundation for Papergames.

The third game in the series, Miracle Nikki, is the first introduction to Miraland — a world where fighting is prohibited, and all conflict is resolved through styling battles. This expanded the Barbie-like foundation of the Nikki IP into a world akin to "Alice in Wonderland." It is important to note that "Miracle Nikki" was the China-only release (2015), while a majority of the globe knows this game as "Love Nikki" (2016 launch). According to Sensor Tower, the game has amassed over 85M downloads and $400M in lifetime revenue (not including China Android), and essentially cemented the IP’s earning power.

The next game, Shining Nikki, pushed production quality further, transitioning from 2D to 3D and adopting gacha for acquiring dresses. This was an even bigger success, making Papergames over $400M since its 2019 launch. The stage was set for Papergames to explore even bigger opportunities, not only through the release of Infinity Nikki, but also through its first film, "Nikki and the God of Dreams" (release TBA).

What we're witnessing here is the evolution of the Nikki IP into a franchise. But styling Nikki was just one side of Papergames’ female-focused output; it also started making dating sims.

Love Is Within Reach

After the explosion of Love Nikki (the third and final 2D Nikki game), Papergames released Love and Producer (aka, Mr Love: Queen's Choice) in 2017, a visual novel dating sim with gacha (more commonly known as Otome games). Players use the in-game phone system to text, call, and interact with four male love interests to progress the story. According to Sensor Tower, the game has amassed over $200M in lifetime revenue (not including China Android), and continues to remain a juggernaut in the Otome games category. Its popularity also led to an anime TV adaptation, released in 2020.

Following the success of Love and Producer, as well as Shining Nikki, the next game in the Love series transitioned to 3D and had even higher production values: Love and Deepspace. This added an action battle component to the dating sim gameplay. It released in January 2024, generating over $250M year-to-date in revenue from 15M downloads, according to Sensor Tower.

A key to Papergames’ success has been its proven gacha business model in both the Nikki and Love series. These follow a proven pattern in the market that we covered in Dissecting HoYoverse’s Newest Gacha Engine. In short, it costs $20 for 10 pulls of the gacha, and new rare items are released every three weeks, needing 90-180 pulls ($180-$360) to acquire them. What sets the Nikki games’ gacha engine apart is the player motivation behind them: Traditionally, players pull for more power, but in the Nikki games, it is more for creative possibilities like new outfits and accessories.

After its success with dress-up games and dating sims, Papergames is now looking to broaden its appeal.

Beyond Nikki

Papergames has spun off two studios to create action RPGs for a more male demographic. TipsWorks’ Ballad of Antara is an open-world Souls-like action-RPG, and 17ZHE’s Project: The Perceiver is an open-world action game set in ancient China. Both these titles signal Papergames’ investment in high production value cross-platform games and a broader demographic.

Little is known about the gacha in these upcoming games, though genre conventions suggest they will adopt a system similar to HoYoverse's action RPGs — an exciting new chapter for Papergames, albeit one that has not panned out for HoYoverse this year. The Genshin Impact maker’s ’24 year-to-date revenue is $1.17B, a decrease of 32% from last year’s $1.71B, despite launching a new game in July.

Project: The Perceiver's reveal trailer was posted two years ago, with still no release date in sight, while Ballad of Antara’s reveal was in May this year, with a tentative 2025 launch. As these games develop, the performance of Infinity Nikki might help shape the gacha in these games to help set them apart from traditional models as Papergames looks to continue its hot streak.

*Papergames' portfolio mobile revenue (no China-Android) | Source: Sensor Tower*

Having said all the above, one risk does emerge. Based on the revenue graph above, consistent revenue growth is still something Papergames is chasing. There is clearly a high dependence on revenue growth driven by new launches, as showcased by Love and Deepspace's portfolio revenue impact and the long-term declining revenues of other portfolio titles. That can become a very expensive growth strategy very fast if Papergames continues down its now chosen path of high production value releases. In other words, there is an opportunity for Papergames to drive more long-term growth through its high-budget existing portfolio, and that could manifest in more ways than one.

Papergames is often cited alongside other independent Chinese game developers such as miHoYo and HyperGryph, which have achieved significant success without backing from major conglomerates like Tencent. This independence has allowed these companies to innovate and capture substantial market share in the gaming industry -- not to mention being able to convert their new IPs into longer lasting franchises. More broadly, Papergames is yet another testament to China’s rising influence on mobile and AAA games, and rising stars like Papergames with world-class titles like Infinity Nikki will continue to chip away at global market share in the years to come.

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