Top News

#1:  Goddess of Victory: Nikke Made Nearly $80M in its First Month

Goddess of Victory: Nikke has been attracting a lot of attention recently. It launched a couple of months ago and amassed almost $80M in revenue in November with 5.9M installs, reaching the 5th position among the top-grossing apps worldwide. The fact that the game managed to obtain these results despite not being launched in the biggest market for RPGs (i.e., China) is quite a feat.

Developed by South Korean company Shift Up and published by Tencent, Nikke: Goddess of Victory is a team-based RPG (think Raid: Shadow Legends or Summoners Wars) with action mechanics instead of the usual turn-based system of the subgenre. The game's main mechanic is shooting, which is quite innovative for the space and very rare to find in RPG games (outside of Survival RPGs). The art style is anime and suggestive, and the game narrative and dialogue make the most of it. Although the latter might not be everyone's cup of tea, it should still be very popular among East Asian players and a niche of players in the West. You can watch a video of the gameplay at this link.

Apart from that, the game shows a very high level of production. Animations and graphics are top-notch, and it features most of what you would expect from titles in the subgenre: Missions, Battle Pass, Several Events, and a new PVP mode.

As expected, due to the art style and complexity of the gameplay, the game's primary market is East Asia — Japan and Korea being the most important countries, with 50% and 20% of the total revenue each. However, the game still has not been published in China, and unless Tencent makes it more child-friendly in the region, it might struggle to get it approved by the government. Nevertheless, capturing a market that it hasn’t been able to capture before — Japan — is a great achievement for Tencent.

The game also managed to capture some players in the West, with 17% of its revenue coming from the US. There is a niche market for players interested in East Asian content in the West, and Nikke’s shooting mechanics and sci-fi theme might have been appealing to players in the region as well. However, as the suggestive art style might put off mainstream players, it could be hard for the game to expand further in the West.

Nikke: Goddess of Victory managed to scale in a post-IDFA market. The chart below shows the split between organic and non-organic users in the game:

Apart from a considerable amount of organic downloads from Android, its most valuable users will still come from the iOS market, where most of its paid downloads are, especially in the countries where most of the revenue comes from. (Anecdotally, we’ve also seen outdoor physical ads for Nikke in both Japan and Korea.)

To increase the conversion of its creatives, the game exploits its two most significant selling points:

Shooting Mechanic: This is featured in both Eastern and Western market creatives, and it is the main selling point in the US. The game is not necessarily selling itself as a shooter game, but focusing on this aspect could have helped lower its CPI and increase conversion, especially in the US. However, as the game is still very heavy on its RPG components, it may mislead some of its acquired users.

Risqué Art Style: As expected, this aspect is explored mainly in the East Asian market.

A significant portion of the video ads focus on the characters' physical attributes and sex appeal.

The game's high revenue is the result of both substantial installs as well as effective monetization. With a RPD of $21.60 in the US only a couple of months after launch, the game performs better than any other subgenre’s top-grossing apps in their first year. Nikke offers multiple battle passes, skins, and related events, similar to other East Asian titles, which provides plenty of ways to spend. On top of that, there is an extra strong emphasis on characters in the game (Nikkes) compared to your usual gacha RPG — for example, Nikkes can send players messages or get featured in the lobby — which can motivate players to spend even more on gachas.

In Japan, Nikke’s biggest market, the game's RPD sits at $22.70, which is still a good value compared to what most games manage to reach after 12 months of launch.

However, Japan is a much more competitive region with very mature games that achieved very high RPDs in the long-term. For that reason, we can expect Nikke: Goddess of Victory to face high acquisition costs in order to return to the previous install rates.

Overall, Nikke: Goddess of Victory is a promising team-battle title that stands out from competitors. Its shooting mechanic is its key differentiator from other RPG titles targeting the East, and it’s a great selling point for consumers in the West. In addition, the anime style, suggestive flair, and quality narrative make it highly appealing to East Asia. However, it could also be detrimental to its expansion to the massive Chinese RPG market and further growth in the West. Nikke: Goddess of Victory will likely continue to rely on Japanese users for a big chunk of long-term monetization, despite the competitive environment. Time will tell whether the game's key selling points and future live-ops will be enough to keep it competitive in the region, but it’s hard to have a better start than what we’re seeing right now.

#2: Call of Duty: Warzone Mobile Soft-launches in Australia

Earlier this month, Activision soft-launched Call of Duty: Warzone Mobile in Australia. The game was announced earlier in March and is developed by Activision-owned studios. We looked at the closed beta version and will highlight how it differentiates from other games in the franchise and what might be behind Activision's plan to release a new Call of Duty game on mobile.

Call of Duty: Warzone Mobile brings back the original world from PC/console title Call of Duty Warzone: Verdansk. As a game from the Warzone franchise, the core of the gameplay is still centered on Battle Royale, and, as expected, it follows Call of Duty Mobile’s pattern of controls and camera. You can watch a video of the main gameplay here.

Similar to the main Warzone and Call of Duty Mobile, the game lets players play Battle Royale in three modes: solos, duos, and trios. A big plus for the game, when compared to the PC and console versions, is that the match length is adapted to mobile with matches that last from 5 minutes to 15 minutes, giving the player the choice of a more snackable match or something more similar to the real deal.

Deathmatch is another mode that Activision brought to the game besides Battle Royale. The mode was not featured in the original Warzone, but it is one of the primary modes in Call of Duty Mobile. A key feature here that was not present in its mobile predecessor is the possibility of cross-progression (battle pass only for now) between the game and the recently released PC/console game Call of Duty: Warzone 2.

As the game just launched its closed beta version and is only in Australia, we still have no data to measure its performance. However, considering the success of its mobile predecessor and the popularity of the Warzone franchise, we could probably expect a high chance of success. Call of Duty: Warzone Mobile can benefit from installs coming from CoD Mobile fans and Warzone franchise fans. Additionally, as Activision already found the recipe to make Call of Duty work and monetize for mobile, it can follow the same recipe here.

However, considering that there is a fair share of overlap between what both Call of Duty mobile games offer and how hardcore they are, there is always a risk of cannibalization. Given the success of Call of Duty Mobile, why would Activision put that at risk?

While Call of Duty Mobile was developed by Timi, a Tencent studio, Call of Duty Warzone Mobile development is mostly under Activision's control. With the new game, Activision probably believes it can replicate the learnings from Call of Duty Mobile and gain independence from Tencent to gather a more significant share of the franchise's mobile revenue and complete control of its development. If that’s the case, then we would likely see Activision bringing Call of Duty Warzone Mobile to the same level of feature parity as the original mobile game.

Nevertheless, until Warzone Mobile reaches the same monetization potential as CoD Mobile, we could expect Activision to lose money in the process. Hopefully, the team will have learned enough while cooperating with Tencent to get Warzone Mobile to the same level soon. Additionally, if Activision manages to find a way of marketing both games to different audiences (accessible and premium, for instance), it could make the most out of running two games in parallel — although that may be tough. Of course, given how entrenched CoD Mobile is, plus the fact that there will likely be some brand confusion amongst mobile gamers, Warzone Mobile faces an uphill battle to get to the same level of popularity. It will be interesting to see how Activision evolves its strategy and approach to the entire mobile strategy around Call of Duty going forward.

Game Launch Radar

#1: Oh My Anne

• Publisher: NEOWIZ
• State: Soft Launch
• Territories:  Canada
• Classification: Casual - Puzzle - Match-3

• Quick thoughts:

  • Neowiz is a mid-sized South Korean company. Its biggest titles are spread between Casino and RPG, and its biggest markets are Japan, South Korea, and the United States.

  • Its newest game is very much what we would expect from a common Puzzle & Narrative game. It features:

    • Match-3 puzzles.
    • Narrative centered around somewhat famous Canadian children’s book Anne of Green Gables.
    • House renovation.
    • Anime-inspired art style.
    • You can watch a video of the gameplay here.
  • Although the game’s quality of animations, art, and UI is very good, the app doesn’t bring any innovation when it comes to its features and gameplay.
  • The choice of IP would be a little odd for the mainstream market. However, with the art style and IP, the company might actually be targeting its third biggest market — Japan. Anne of Green Gables is actually pretty popular in Japan and has inspired animes and musicals.
  • Given how saturated the Puzzle & Decorate market is, especially in the west, and the fact that the game doesn’t bring any innovation to the table, focusing on a niche market that is in its comfort zone is sensible.
  • However, if that’s the case, the choice of the soft launch market (Canada) might not bring the right inputs.

#2: Ragnarok Arena

• Publisher:  Gravity Corporation (Gung Ho Online Entertainment)
• State: Soft Launch
• Territories: South East Asia, South Asia, Middle East, Oceania
• Classification:  RPG - Idle RPG

• Quick thoughts:

  • Ragnarok Arena is a new game based on  the same IP of MMO Ragnarok Online.
  • The game is a gacha RPG with idle mechanics where players collect monsters from the Ragnarok franchise and use them to build their own squad. You can watch a video of the gameplay here.
  • The game's main mode is campaign, and it features a very light narrative. The art style is anime, as it is for most of the successful games in the subgenre.
  • Besides PVE, the game also boosts competitive features like PVP battles and Leaderboards in a similar fashion to other idle RPGs.
  • Despite being a newly launched title, the game already features a robust set of live-ops, compatible with a game competing in Asia.
  • Overall, Ragnarok Arena doesn’t offer much innovation but brings in a proven gameplay and must-have features coated in a well-known RPG IP.

Other Game Announcements

• Supercell removes loot boxes from Brawl Stars. Link
• Stumble Guys hits the tracks with Hot Wheels. Link
• Indie hit Vampire Survivors just dropped on mobile. Link
• Devolver’s physics puzzler Tumble Time is to launch in January. Link
• King takes a new approach to privacy notices in its new update. Link
• PUBG Mobile surpasses $9B in lifetime revenue, and Genshin Impact hits $4B. Link
• Among Us introduces a new hide-and-seek mode in the latest update. Link

Company Announcements

• Playtika to lay off over 600 staff, studios at risk, three games canned. Link
• Homa’s Merge Master reaches 100M downloads. Link
• Embracer Group is approved for Stockholm exchange. Link
• Nintendo sees mobile gaming as a marketing strategy as opposed to a revenue generator. Link
• Sega opens new California-based office to encourage creativity and facilitate streaming. Link
• CD Projekt Red scuttles Gwent and Witcher mobile. Link
• Ubisoft launches tool to spread awareness on in-game behavior. Link
• Riot aims at NetEase in latest copyright infringement claim. Link

Ecosystem Announcements

• China rolls back zero-COVID policy, but what does this mean for mobile gaming? Link
• Apple loosens grip on App Store pricing with 700 new price points. Link
• Animoca Brands acquires majority stake in music metaverse platform PIXELYNX. Link
• GameOn receives $35M in Series B funding. Link
• Gamefam sees rapid growth in making games for Roblox. Link
• Keywords to acquire digital support platform Helpshift for up to $75M. Link
• Epic debuts family-friendly cabined accounts for its games. Link

Content Worth Consuming

• 10 User Acquisition mega predictions for 2023 (Matej Lancaric): “It’s the time of the year when everybody makes predictions. Unfortunately, these predictions are always based on the thin air and fingers in people’s asses. I will summarize the predictions for you. This is what you will hear in the next couple of weeks!“ Link
• Battle passes are everywhere – but few of them are good (Gamesindustry.biz): “In the decade since Dota 2 introduced battle passes as limited-time systems focused around competitive esports events, they have become absolutely ubiquitous, with the extraordinary success of Fortnite’s battle pass being the catalyst that saw battle passes suddenly sprouting out of every nook and cranny.“ Link
• Ep. 107: New Games (Mastering the Retention podcast): “On this week's episode of Mastering Retention, Tom is joined by Jesse Kroon (Game Designer at Product Madness) and Stanislav Minasov (VP of Product at AppMagic) to talk about the process of creating a new game. The guys have a detailed discussion about where to look for inspiration, how to flesh out a game concept, what goes into making certain decisions about your game, intellectual property, and so much more!“ Link
• 14 low-budget, highly successful story games (Game Analytics): “This time, we’ll look at the top games that use storytelling as a core mechanic and show you that you don’t need sparkling design and intense gameplay to create a hit. You just need an extra C: Choice. Because choice is how you can differentiate a book from a game.“ Link
• Outsource vs. in-house: The best way to build creatives in 2023 (Level Up Podcast): “In this LevelUp episode, Melissa gets into building the dream creative team with Vitaly Gladkov, Creative Department Lead at AppQuantum. They attempt to finally answer the question: does it just make sense to move your creatives all in-house? Bonus content includes: why do you need a creative team anyway?” Link